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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 06:21am Sep 30, 2001 EST (#9977 of 9981)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

HOW TO SEARCH THE MISSILE DEFENSE FORUM .............

MD9057 rshowalter 9/14/01 2:26pm ... MD9440 rshowalter 9/19/01 8:07am

Some things seem to me to be going reasonably.

But I do have reservations, and serious ones, that I believe almarst shares, based on gisterme's very extensive postings.

Links to gisterme's postings, and links to some serious reservations of my own about some of gisterme's postings, are connected to
MD9538 rshowalter 9/20/01 5:01pm

rshowalter - 06:25am Sep 30, 2001 EST (#9978 of 9981)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

PSYCHWAR, CASABLANCA, AND TERROR , which tells a key story about the Cold War, has interested many people. http://talk.guardian.co.uk/WebX?14@@.ee7a163/0 Especially the core story part, from postin 13 http://talk.guardian.co.uk/WebX?14@@.ee7a163/12 to posting 23 http://talk.guardian.co.uk/WebX?14@@.ee7a163/22 There is a comment in #26 that I feel some may find interesting, as well.

A fairly compact ongoing summary of this thread from March 1 to date, with many links, is in Psychwar, Casablanca, and Terror -- from #159 on. http://talk.guardian.co.uk/WebX?14@@.ee7a163/165

rshowalter - 06:31am Sep 30, 2001 EST (#9979 of 9981)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Missile defense is one approach to achieving security. It is to be thought of as a part of a system of security measures, to meet the system of security needs that we have.

To meet needs, we have to do possible things.

That means we have to avoid approaches that cannot possibly work, and find patterns that are consistent with the constraints, including constraints on fact, that solutions have to be fit to.

The logic of consistency is absolutely central to any reasonable hope.

Here are postings about consistency relationships, that seem to me to be practical and hopeful.

MD9469 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:22pm ... MD9470 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:26pm
MD9471 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:27pm ... MD9472 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:28pm
MD9477 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:31pm ... MD9478 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:33pm
MD9479 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:34pm ... MD9480 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:35pm

MD9484 rshowalter 9/19/01 5:42pm An absolutely fundamental fact is that to get ideas focused well enough for action takes a lot of crossreferencing, and crosschecking - - and somehow people "form" connected idea systems out of context.

You can't expect enemies, or people from very different worlds, to sort out their differences, well enough to keep out of each others' way, and even cooperate, with radically less talking than people who work together need to sort out their relationships.

You may not need an unreasonable amount of talk. But it takes a lot of talking.

When people interact successfully, there is a lot of talk, while they're getting ready, if you count words (people have, and word counts are huge). People need this talk.

Want to ASSURE misunderstandings between groups - - enough so that they cannot really cooperate, except in very minimal ways?

Restrict conversation.

To see how very completely this can be done, here is a document which is, depending on your assumptions, either absolutely beautiful, or starkly ugly.

. NUNN-WOLFOWITZ TASK FORCE REPORT: INDUSTRY "BEST PRACTICES" REGARDING EXPORT COMPLIANCE PROGRAMS http://164.109.59.52/library/pdf/nunnwolfowitz.pdf July 25, 2000

rshowalter - 06:48am Sep 30, 2001 EST (#9980 of 9981)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Simple, basic points, that people shouldn't have to be told.
MD3843 rshowalter 5/14/01 3:25pm

Basic points, that people need to know, understand, and remember. And think about as they watch events:
MD3844 rshowalter 5/14/01 3:28pm ... MD3845 rshowalter 5/14/01 3:43pm
MD3846 rshowalter 5/14/01 4:01pm ... MD3847 rshowalter 5/14/01 4:05pm

Gusts of emotion can make people feel better, for a while. But perhaps it would be safer, and permit more beauty in the real world, if we grew up a little?
MD3848 rshowalter 5/14/01 4:12pm ... MD3849 rshowalter 5/14/01 4:15pm

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