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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 05:28pm Sep 19, 2001 EST (#9472 of 9487)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

MD2692 rshowalter 4/28/01 7:31am MD1016: rshowalter 3/15/01 8:23am

MD2693 rshowalter 4/28/01 7:32am

MD2629: http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?14@184.2BmmajOAvRs^1884173@.f0ce57b/28232630: MD2630: rshowalter 4/26/01 11:18am

... on issues of importance, if we do the work, we can find out a great deal.

Findings of consistency, again and again, from many statistically and causally independent connections, can "nail something down."

On the issues of nuclear weapons, missile defense, and military balance, all of which are now more urgent issues now, that work seems to me to be worth doing.

MD2880 rshowalter 5/1/01 10:29am MD2882 rshowalter 5/1/01 11:37am

MD5071 rshowalter 6/14/01 7:35am

. . . . I feel two key questions bear repeating when right answers matter.

(i) What are the credible data from ALL sources?

ii) How can we formulate a model or solution that is consistent with all the credible data?

Because if our model doesn't fit reality, on a matter of life and death -- the wrong answer can bring death which more care and wisdom could have avoided.

MD5072 lunarchick 6/14/01 7:36am

lunarchick - 05:29pm Sep 19, 2001 EST (#9473 of 9487)
lunarchick@www.com

LedZ: He's an oxford educated guy whose polarity is often poles from mine .. he wouldn't post on a forum - rather he packages and gets paid for self-comment.

rshowalter - 05:30pm Sep 19, 2001 EST (#9474 of 9487)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

So I'm not very bright. You knew that.

rshowalter - 05:30pm Sep 19, 2001 EST (#9475 of 9487)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

A sense of the size of the database we have to accomodate comes from looking at MD5073-75 rshowalter 6/14/01 7:44am

MD5180 rshowalter 6/15/01 9:14am

But in terms of word count , hard thought, and the amount of human contact and checking to be expended, efforts need to be increased .... and increased very much. . . . . .

Perhaps the leaders can't reasonably agree -- or even reasonably communcate -- unless a body of common knowledge exists in the staffs and socio-technical systems that they stand in front of -- but cannot fully understand or control.

This thread, I believe, makes it clear that there are massive differences of opinion and definition -- and deep, dangerous chasms of incomprehension and lack of sympathy, between the US and Russia -- and that adressing these would be useful.

MD5181 rshowalter 6/15/01 9:18am ... MD5182 rshowalter 6/15/01 9:20am

For human communication to be reliable - as human animals inescapably are --- word count, crosschecking and crossreferencing have to be extensive -- so that common schema are formed, and "meetings of the minds" are humanly possible.

In the short, stereotyped, and high pressure meetings between national leaders there is no time for this.

This thread, I believe, shows many of the patterns that would make improved communication possible -- using the much increased memory, and ability to tolerate complexity -- that the internet provides.

Whatever else one may wish to say, Putin and Bush have very different world views -- and so do their staffs.

In a few hours of contact between principles and staffs, this isn't going to be bridged.

Without techniques of mutual checking that both sides can trust it isn't going to be bridged.

lunarchick - 05:31pm Sep 19, 2001 EST (#9476 of 9487)
lunarchick@www.com

LedZ: He's an oxford educated guy whose polarity is often poles from mine .. he (AlanJones)wouldn't post on a forum - rather he packages and gets paid for self-comment.

(11 following messages)

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