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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 12:51pm Sep 17, 2001 EST (#9294 of 9297)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

When the Bush administration rallies to war, it acts as if it leads an invulnerable nation. It acts as if we need not consider how we can be deterred when we take action.

That's a very bad assumption, for reasons expressed well in

Order of Magnitude: The Toll and the Technology by GEORGE JOHNSON http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/16/weekinreview/16JOHN.html

. The attack on the Pentagon and the disintegration of the World Trade Center produced more horror than a human brain could handle.

George wrote an excellent piece, and includes an insight, related to some things I've said here, expressed very well:

"Things Fall Apart." And the bigger they are, the harder they fall, especially with a little help.

"The glass-and-steel gossamers called skyscrapers turn out to be as delicate as their architects try to make them appear — reminders of how fragile order is, of how much energy, physical and mental, is required to stave off entropy and build. With the slightest nudge, heat and gravity take over, the artificial reverting to the natural. What takes years to create collapses in seconds. Randomness, entropy, disorder return.

. . . . .

We ought to learn how vulnerable we are -- it has been clearly, vividly demonstrated, and powerful, connected people are the people to die, this time.

People are so vulnerable in so many ways, that the only "defense systems" that can work well require working communities.

Those communities may punish, and usually sometimes they do. They may include law enforcement, and prisons.

But there has to be more to it than that.

rshowalter - 01:00pm Sep 17, 2001 EST (#9295 of 9297)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

We don't have to like what they do, but we have to remember that these are people, and they are not ugly to each other.

Pakistani demonstrators gathered in Rawalpindi Sunday to denounce their government's cooperation with American anti-terrorism efforts. ../_images/2001/09/17/international/17paki.1.jpg

rshowalter - 01:10pm Sep 17, 2001 EST (#9296 of 9297)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Of Human Missiles by WILLIAM SAFIRE http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/17/opinion/17SAFI.html

" WASHINGTON -- One Sunday morning a generation ago, the C.I.A. chief William Casey dropped in at my house for a cup of coffee and gruffed, "You got a map of Afghanistan?"

" Not your usual request, but I found a world atlas. Casey's fingers stabbed at the map to show the strategic purpose of the Soviet Army's thrust southward into that nation. First, conquer Afghanistan; then take over neighboring Pakistan, thereby achieving the czarist dream of an opening to the Indian Ocean, leading to Communist victory in the cold war.

" To counter Moscow's daring plan, we covertly supported the Afghans with guerrilla training and anti-aircraft weapons. Sure enough, with our secret aid and with the help of adventurous Muslim volunteers from all over — including one rich young Saudi named Osama bin Laden — the Afghans stunned the world by breaking the will of the Red Army. Our spymaster was prescient: that demoralizing, decade-long military defeat did begin the end of Communism's evil empire.

" But the soldiers of misfortune triumphant in that war found further sponsorship from ayatollahs who took over Iran as well as dictators of Iraq, Libya and Syria. That gave impetus to a loosely linked, resentment-motivated terrorist empire usually lumped together as "radical Islam."

" After the murder of thousands of American civilians by 19 suicide bombers, almost every Arab or Persian man in the U.S. has been receiving looks of fear or suspicion. Our leaders, recalling the unjust roundup of patriotic Japanese-Americans in World War II, rightly condemned such knee-jerk bigotry.

" It was fitting that a Muslim cleric was among those chosen to offer their condolence at the National Cathedral memorial service. Other Muslim clergy have dissociated their religion from radical violence, and Arab- American groups have taken out ads expressing their revulsion at the crime and solidarity with the grief- stricken. But Muslims are uniquely equipped to undertake more specific action.

" What are the two most powerful weapons the terrorists possess? First, the element of surprise, which we will try to reduce with closer surveillance, air marshals, biological and missile defenses, etc. A more powerful weapon of radical Islam is its ability to erase from the brains of recruits the basic will to live.

Comment: It isn't that hard to get soldiers to take essentially suicidal actions, or impose them on others. How many SAC pilots expect to survive a nuclear bombing mission. United States history, and the history of every other military nation, is full of cases where people have accepted overwhelmingly likely death, and have fought well.

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