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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

gisterme - 03:06pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6149 of 6169)

rshowalter wrote: "...The artificial intelligence efforts funded by the military have been dominated by a "connectionist" or "parallel distributed processing" paradigm that was showing severe limits by the late 1980's..."

Why would any very complex level of AI be needed to track a ballistic missile? As dirac says, the "B" in ICBM stands for "sitting duck". ICBM payloads follow a nice parabolic trajectory once the boost stage is over. Given the equation of the parabola and the location of the warhead at a particular point in time one could predict where the warhead would be 5 minutes hence by using a hand-held calculator.

There is one thing that nobody has mentioned yet on this thread and that is that not all intercontinental missiles are ballistic. The Russians developed "sub orbital" weapons systems in the '70s as an attempt to reduce warning time. Their trajectories are not nearly as predictable as a ballistic missile. Still, dealing with sub-orbitals should not be much more difficult than with ICBMs given a space based real-time tracking system coupled to speed-of-light intervention (read laser).

Don't see a need for any serious AI there, Robert. Do you?

WRT the "Hubble Wars" automobile headlight example (rshowalter 6/27/01 10:39am ):

"...The Space Telescope...has enough resolution to just tell the difference between a car 2000 miles away facing the telescope head on with one headlight, and a car with two headlights at a distance of 2000 miles

Just tell the difference -- not get a clear picture -- that means just be able to tell the difference between a single blur, and two merged blurs..."

If you want to shoot the left headlight at 2,000 miles, Robert, just aim the laser at the center of the left blur and hold it there. Then pull the trigger. I wonder how many times brighter the infrared signature of a rocket booster is than the optical signiture of an automobile headlight? ICBMs are MUCH larger than cars.

I'd also assume that the headlight "blurs" could be better resolved through the atmosphere by use of adaptive optics...and another reasnable assumption might be that a space or aircraft based laser would not be fired until the boost vehicle had cleared most of the atmosphere. No point in doing EVERYTHING the hard way.

almarst-2001 - 03:14pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6150 of 6169)

2001: a watershed for Russian defence? - http://www.janes.com/regional_news/europe/news/jdi/jdi010205_1_n.shtml

"Generation of revenue from export activity remains of central importance to the national defence budget."

almarst-2001 - 03:18pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6151 of 6169)

Gesterme,

What about guided "intelligent" and stealth missile quietly dropped from the satelite?

almarst-2001 - 03:37pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6152 of 6169)

NEW FAMILY OF RUSSIAN MISSILES WILL CREATE MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR AIR-STRIKE PLANNING IN YEARS TO COME, SAYS LEADING DEFENCE EXPERT - http://www.janes.com/press/pc000308.shtml

"Throughout the Kosovo War air campaign the major Russian missile manufacturer Almaz Central Design Burueau was quietly putting the finishing touches to a new family of highly effective S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air (SAM) missile systems. Destined to become widespread both inside and outside Russia, the presence of these missiles will "create major problems for [air strike] planners for years to come", and their significance has been greatly underestimated by Defence Ministers worldwide. "

possumdag - 03:48pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6153 of 6169)
Possumdag@excite.com

Noted (above) that Russian Engineering and Manufacturing would like a slice of NATO's orderbook.
For various reasons this might not happen.
Raises the point as to how the Russian economy might otherwise
utilise its peoples to produce regular product that IS in demand.
What regular products might be developed with added value (increasing product demand).
I'd see tourism as an area that could be further exploited in exchange for foreign currency.
Foreign exchange is necessary, but, how much National development can be made via local development.
Pity Russia was 'stripped' by its own political mafia.

possumdag - 03:50pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6154 of 6169)
Possumdag@excite.com

Great to have missiles .. but .. are they really a wasted expenditure when other NEEDS have to be met for the people ?

almarst-2001 - 03:51pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6155 of 6169)

The United States violated the rights of Germany and two of its citizens when it denied the condemned brothers access to their consulate before executing them in 1999 for murder, the World Court ruled Wednesday. - http://www.newsday.com/ap/text/international/ap481.htm

The problem is not in this or that particular case. The problem is in a MINDSET and the PATTERN.

As of Dirac, Midmoon and Gesterme - like, "The US CAN'T be guilty of any wrongdoings. But, even if is, just ignore those finger-pointers. We are the GREATEST, aren't we?";)

almarst-2001 - 03:56pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6156 of 6169)

possumdag 6/27/01 3:50pm

"...when other NEEDS have to be met for the people?"

Just ask the Serbians after the 60bn and 3000 death "humanitarian" bombing.

Can you calculate the relative size of such damage in US?

possumdag - 04:02pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6157 of 6169)
Possumdag@excite.com

Does the world still have to plan huge defence systems ... is land and territorial acquisition still the biggest external threat to NationStates ?

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