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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

bacchante - 12:49pm Apr 30, 2001 EST (#2796 of 2802)

There is still that nagging problem that NMD doesn't work, and in fact cannot cover all cases. Should we really take a diplomatic risk for the sake of only half of us getting blown up? And really, if we take what is essentially a belligerant step, wouldn't we be more likely to have some loony fire at as?

What prevented any nuclear missiles from being fired during the Cold War was the threat of mutual annihilation. That's all that preventing missiles from being fired now. But it works. No missiles have gone off, and there have been very few times when anyone has even considered pressing the button.

We've been there, and done that. Call it NMD, SDI, or Star Wars, its basically a way of funnelling tax money into the military-industrial complex. If Bush is so serious about a tax cut, why doesn't he propose to use the money he would use on NMD on a larger cut? But this won't happen, because Bush is listening to his Reagan-era advisors, who would be happy to create a federal deficit in order to funnel money to the wealthy.

rshowalter - 12:50pm Apr 30, 2001 EST (#2797 of 2802)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

But there ARE a lot of ways human beings can restrain the possession and use of nuclear weapons. And the most important would be through a consensus of moral standards, with reasonable enforcement.

I don't think anyone can reasonably say :

"Bob Showalter is an appeaser, or advocates appeasement"

on the basis of this thread.

I'm for peace, and military balances, and no more carnage than necessary.

And I'm for sensible enough, careful enough, fact based enough, complex negotiations that a minimum of carnage is necessary.

applez0 - 12:51pm Apr 30, 2001 EST (#2798 of 2802)

baccahnte - actually, in publically-revealed tests, only 33% interception was achieved. Furthermore, a MIRV-headed missile (with lots of fakes) could well decrease that interception rate dramatically (5-20%, assuming full launch and minor reserve force).

So, well over half of us can expect to be blown up.

Agreed: a complete waste of money!

applez0 - 12:54pm Apr 30, 2001 EST (#2799 of 2802)

rshowalter - I think I need to disagree with you. I don't think a moral code will work. Realpolitik and national interests do...so it becomes a matter of making it the vital interest of all nations to keep the nuclear threat stable, whilst reducing overall numbers of weapons (one can still keep effectiveness high).

The Cold War has already succeeded in doing this, and I don't see why we should throw away these hard-won benefits on a risky NMD venture.

rshowalter - 12:55pm Apr 30, 2001 EST (#2800 of 2802)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

My favorite book review deals with a misunderstanding about fact, and starts as follows:

" The sad fact about this sorry book is that it should never have been written."

I believe that the line applies well and truly to Star Wars and all its successors.

Except now, in addition to mistakes, there are frauds, some of them going very deep.

rshowalter - 12:58pm Apr 30, 2001 EST (#2801 of 2802)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

applez0 4/30/01 12:54pm

I only think a moral code works after a great deal of "realpolitic" has accomplished the reduction down to zero -- as an immunity.

You say something reasonable:

" so it becomes a matter of making it the vital interest of all nations to keep the nuclear threat stable, whilst reducing overall numbers of weapons (one can still keep effectiveness high).

But effectiveness for deterrance no longer requires nukes, and the systems, in the new internet world, are so inherently unstable that we should take them down. And we CAN.

We can get the balances realpolitic needs by other means.

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