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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 03:43pm Mar 5, 2001 EST (#839 of 841)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

A big point about credibilty. Deception, lies, and secrecy decrease credibility. They degrade trust, and possibilities of cooperation.

We should find ways to be more open. Militarily, that used to make no sense at all.

Now it does.

The internet, and other electronic changes, are stipping away almost all the powers of concealment nation states used to have. Surprise attacks are a lot harder than they used to be to pull off, and with time they will get harder still.

That can't be reversed.

A time is approaching where it will be safer, in political and military terms, to tell the truth, at least about the big things, than to lie.

With more truth, and less successful deception, it will be easier for complex cooperation to occur.

The world will be a safer place, and nuclear disarmament will be much more enforceable than people now imagine.

Militaries, and intelligence agencies, have some adjusting to do. They don't really have a choice but to adapt to the new information flow conditions - which cannot be reversed. Some reflexes, that used to make military sense, can't be knee jerk responses any longer. Lying is a lot more dangerous than it used to be, because deception is much harder to maintain than it used to be, for anything large, or anything that goes on a significant period of time.

Surprise attacks are much more dangerous, too. A surprise attack, based on a deception, becomes an ambush for the defending force, and a route for the attacker, if the defending side learns about it and reacts effectively.

rshowalter - 04:06pm Mar 5, 2001 EST (#840 of 841)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Mutually assured destruction (MAD) used to be the bedrock of our nuclear faith, the "saving grace" that made nuclear weapons "on balance, good." Now, MAD is no longer assured, and cannot be assured.

The evils and horrors of nuclear weapons remain, but the "saving grace" is gone.

I may get an argument about that in public, but I don't really expect to. MAD, which used to be the bedrock of our feeling of security, is an illusion now. In Dashiell Hammet's phrase, it is "gone, like a fist when you open your hand."

Now what ?

Considering the risks, the arguments for getting rid of nukes, or radically reducing their numbers, are now MUCH stronger, and the need is more urgent.

(Large scale reductions are thought to be desirable by both sides, and are being seriously consided by both the Bush administration and the Russians.)

But a question arises. A military or political leader, responsible for real action, will have to ask ---

" OK - suppose we get rid of the nukes. -- What then ? .. .... What do we do, step by step, in detail, to defend ourselves, and keep safe, in a world where there is much to fear?

rshowalter - 04:08pm Mar 5, 2001 EST (#841 of 841)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

To get to an answer, we have to understand a new, basic thing.

We all understand that the development of nuclear weapons changed history.

. Nuclear weapons radically and permanently changed "the worst that could happen" in war. -- That nightmare will, at some levels, remain with us, no matter how well our technical and political controls work. In this sense, the world was permanently changed in 1945, and the fifteen years thereafter.

But nuclear weapons did not STOP history.

Another change has come upon us, also historical. It will also be irreversible, permanent so long as civilization continues.

. The internet and related electonic changes, and the changes that will follow from them, have radically and permanently increased the speed of information flow, permanently increased the amount of information available, permanently increased the speed and power with which the information can be used, and permanently, radically reduced the cost of both information and logical inference.

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

The connections between information (and deception) and war, that have existed since time immemorial, are now permanently altered.

THE ALTERATION IS IN THE DIRECTION OF STABILITY AND SAFETY - OR CAN BE MADE TO BE .

BUT THIS IS A BIG NEW CHANGE, THAT HAS TO BE UNDERSTOOD.

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

I believe that the world is going to be considerably safer and more stable soon.

But militarily, it is also going to be different.

Military forces will still have plenty to do.

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