New York Times on the Web Forums Science
Technology has always found its greatest consumer in a nation's
war and defense efforts. Since the last attempts at a "Star Wars"
defense system, has technology changed considerably enough to make
the latest Missile Defense initiatives more successful? Can such an
application of science be successful? Is a militarized space
inevitable, necessary or impossible?
Read Debates, a
new Web-only feature culled from Readers' Opinions, published every
Thursday.
(131 previous messages)
palousereader
- 06:28am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#132
of 11858)
evenbetta, yes, we can agree that any wall is temporary. As I
said in an earlier post, once we all have shields, then we move on
to the next level of offense/defense. But the Great Wall worked for
how many centuries? I'd be happy if a system of shared defense
shields worked for even a century.
As for a unilateral defense shield system being perceived as
giving us a first strike capability- don't we have it already; and
don't all nuclear countries have it- just a question of who hits the
button first. Maybe it would give us a successful first strike
capabilty. But I'm not advocating unilateral development/deployment
of shields. Only shared research, shared timetables for deployment
(assuming it will work).
Once again, MAD may have been good enough in the days of few
nuclear nations- all large, all (luckily) rational. That is not the
future. I want more options, more response time. It's so easy to
write (as I have) that we'll nuke North Korea if they take out
Seattle. Would we destroy millions of people who never elected their
leader, probably never shared his ideology- just to maintain the
credibility of an outdated MAD theory? And China's response would
be..what? Russia's ? the EU's? All decisions to be made in a matter
of minutes. You call this sanity? Whatever the defects in the
current shield technology and our attempts to sell it as protection
against x or y...and there the criticism may be more than valid- the
idea of defense, of time to respond rationally- for all
countries..is a good one. Even temporarily.
palousereader
- 06:38am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#133
of 11858)
Am I the only one of the NYTimes readers in favor of nuclear
shields? Come on Madeleine, Bill, -- help me out here; I'm being
overwhelmed.
exotyone
- 09:02am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#134
of 11858)
When your past, present, and potential enemies Don't want you to
deploy a new system( a totally DEFENSIVE system i may add, only
destroys missles fired at you)...you KNOW you are doing something
RIGHT, a real no brainer here everyone :-)
evenbetta
- 09:05am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#135
of 11858)
Your defensive is actually offensive-because you embrace the
concept of Nuclear Utilization Theory and that dear exo is a fact.
interested party, BA Public Affairs MA National Security Policy
evenbetta
- 09:13am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#136
of 11858)
"I'd be happy if a system of shared defense shields worked for
even a century."
we do, its called deterrence its lasted half a centuary-:) leave
it alone by not attempting to survive nuclear war further the links
with economics and you have a 'shield' that will last just as long.
grodh2
- 09:14am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#137
of 11858)
OK so the test today is rigged, the testers know all the
characteristics of the attack missile and the one decoy. There's a
50% chance of picking the right target anyway so who will know if
the computer picked right or got lucky. Should we use a system like
this at all? What about against a missile launched by accident? Of
course no one knows what the likelihood of that happening is,
probably extremely small, but if the building of the ABM system is
perceived as a threat and the response is to build more missiles,
then the chances of a missile accident will definitely increase and
we will be worse off than before.
This deadline of deciding whether to go ahead and build the
system is artificial. There is no reason that this decision can not
be put off until cooler heads prevail. Let's do a real analysis of
the chances of a missile strike, including social, economic and
political realites. Let's also do a real analysis of what the
consequences of an ABM system would mean. What are the real chances
that this would lead to more nuclear weapons. How easy would it be
to get around the system or overwhelm it. Can all this money be more
effectively spent elsewhere to reduce a nuclear threat? Let's get
all the facts before this gains so much momentum that it gets built
regardless of its wisdom. There is no need to rush into this.
evenbetta
- 09:27am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#138
of 11858)
As for a unilateral defense shield system being perceived as
giving us a first strike capability- don't we have it already; and
don't all nuclear countries have it-
* The shield itself is NOT a first strike weapon. The Shield
destroys the SECOND Strike ability of another. Why? Because prior to
development the sole reason for nuclear stalemate is the
understanding between states that without question-without any
chance-without a doubt-a launch by your country will produce a
massive obliverated responce by my country with no -chance-no chance
for survival with a shield you have just INCREASED the chance of
survival for all. You have made an addition into an equation that
now LOWERS conventional CONFLICT and RAISES nuclear crossover points
in times of crisis. YOU HAVE GIVEN A CHANCE-IN A SITUATION WHICH NO
CHANCE EXISTED BEFORE. NO CHANCE BEFORE ALLOWED FOR THE MUTUAL
UNDERSTANDING THAT SURVIVAL OF THE VERY THING ONE WAS TRYING TO
PROTECT-THE STATE-' IS IMPOSSIBLE. That is why the international
community is so against this system. That is why the two largest
nuclear powers on earth have a placed agreement that prevents either
from development of such systems. Adocates of such systems say such
a thing is 'outdated with the proliferation of WMD and CIS still in
posession of such things its impossible for such perspectives to be
taken as correct.
evenbetta
- 09:39am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#139
of 11858)
palousereader - 06:28am Jul 7, 2000 EDT (#132 of 138)
If you wish to play the game of extended deterrence=. If you wish
to place that blanket all over the world
then yes,
you need to make those type of choices.
No 'shield' is gonna help you
evenbetta
- 09:43am Jul 7, 2000 EST (#140
of 11858)
"It's so easy to write (as I have) that we'll nuke North Korea if
they take out Seattle"
You must have never seen America during its its fits for
revenage. Its cry by its population to 'DO SOMETHING'. If you think
America or its population would desire restraint at this point- then
continue to think of it that way.Be the idealist.
by the way you asked the wrong question
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