Missile Defense

Gisterme makes some arguments that I thought should have evaporated, given things I've said -- and perhaps some other things I should have dealt with in more detail.

I'll deal with those points today...

We'll just have to agree to disagree on that...

gisterme 7/2/01 3:25pm

gisterme 7/2/01 6:03pm

gisterme 7/3/01 7:24pm

gisterme 7/5/01 6:33pm

gisterme 7/6/01 8:13pm

gisterme 7/9/01 7:56pm

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT READINESS REVIEW 10 August 2000 . ...

I've been very scared, for a long time -- and since Bush was elected, things have gone so surreally wrong that I've felt there was nothing to do but stand. Because I've felt that the treasonous low-lifes who've subverted the United States and stolen the presidency were not only corrupt -- but also incompetent enough that they could easily destroy the world...

" Gisterme , is there any substance to the lasar based weapons programs?"

I feel I asked a fair question --- and I have to feel that gisterme knows the answer, but does not like the answer.

The same question can be fairly asked about everything else in the "missile sheild". They are admirably suited as excuses to give money to the US military - industrial complex -- when the US military budget now amounts to $1500/year for every man, woman, and child in the US...

The things that matter can all be checked in the open literature - up to specifing advances -- best described as "miracles" that would have to be achieved for program viability...

" The Pentagon has not yet developed any technology that can reliably shoot down enemy missiles."

That line is true, but could be expanded to read:

" The Pentagon has not yet developed any technology, even on paper, at the level of plans that could be presented for examination by independent experts, that can or could possibly, much less reliably, shoot down enemy missiles.

"The proposal floated with the fewest technical problems, the Garwin proposal, could not be used anywhere near the Alaskan site -- but would have to be deployed within a few hundred miles, or less, of the fired missile being defended against.

" The "smart rock" proposal which has been most tested has had little success --even on tests that are far easier than tactical conditions would be...

On the matter of testing, and the general need for technical sanity in the administration's unpatriotic madness here, I'm very glad that Senator Levin comes from Michigan , capital of the auto industry, and a place where people can judge the difficulties in the execution of complex systems.

Missile Defense is a lot more complex, and has tigher tolerances, than auto manufacture -- but it seems to me that it is enough to know how difficult auto manufacture is, to judge how crazy the administration's proposals are...

It is getting easier and easier to argue that the administration's "missile defense" proposals have no technical merit at all. That is, if these proposals are judged in terms of what can be done according to technical usages in the open literature...

If gisterme does not have high government connections -- and is not speaking with authority --- gisterme has often written to convey a sense that those connections exist.

I've suggested in MD6808 rshowalter 7/9/01 4:43pm ...

The lasar based program, and probably everything in missile defense, should be shot right between the eyes for fundamental technical reasons -- even if there is a threat -- because the stuff doesn't work --- most of it certainly can't, and the one piece that could, with good execution and diplomatic compromise with the Russians, will probably be botched. (links)

MD6772 rshowalter 7/8/01 5:21pm

Loyal people, such as congressman, by trusting too much, can find that people have been making monkeys out of them.

If I were Congressman Curt Weldon, I'd feel very ill used by this administration...

Rumsfeld Outlines to NATO Fast Track for Missile Shield by JAMES DAO http://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/08/world/08NATO.html

Rumsfeld's position looked duplicitous and foolhardy then, and looks considerably worse now.

at the end of Dao's story today, there was a report of recent testing -- where contractors and the government can't get the Patriot - which failed in the Gulf War, to work yet. rshowalter 7/10/01 8:03am

The results - which have been consistently miserable by reasonable tactical standards, -- cast extreme doubt on the ability of this administration, and these contractors -- to make any missile defense work -- including a "close in, boost phase, smart rock" proposal is at least theoretically possible...

" It is technically easy to make missiles and warheads immune to lasar weapons -- even if the lasar weapons did achieve a chain of miracles related to optical resolution and control. See: Reflective Coatings http://www.phy.davidson.edu/jimn/Java/Coatings.htm "

"The engineers asking for money for the program, and promising to make a contribution to US defense have to know this.

"I'm at a loss, myself, to understand how this cannot be treason...

" Missile Test Is 1 for 2

"WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE, N.M., July 9 (AP) — The Pentagon reported partial success today in a test of the Patriot missile system, with one of its interceptors destroying a remote-controlled F-4 fighter plane that was using radar-jamming signals, while a second Patriot failed to hit an incoming missile.

"The F-4 test was the first time the Army had fired its latest-generation Patriot, the Pac-3, at a fighter airplane. The other Patriot test firing was aimed at a Hera target missile which was designed to simulate an incoming ballistic missile."

Comment: A decade after the Gulf War, when the Patriot was claimed to be operational but did not hit targets, the Patriot, after continuous development, is still missing Hera target missiles - easier to hit than the tactical ballistic missiles Patriot was supposed to be able to hit, on an operational basis, a decade ago...

With the thermal stresses in your chemical lasars, which also have mixing problems, you don't have any chance at all of getting to HST accuracy -- and you need much more.

Resolving binary stars is nice to do, and useful --- but not relevant for middile defense targeting purposes...