New York Times on the Web Forums Science

Missile Defense

Technology has always found its greatest consumer in a nation's war and defense efforts. Since the last attempts at a "Star Wars" defense system, has technology changed considerably enough to make the latest Missile Defense initiatives more successful? Can such an application of science be successful? Is a militarized space inevitable, necessary or impossible?

Read Debates, a new Web-only feature culled from Readers' Opinions, published every Thursday.

rshow55 - 01:47pm Nov 13, 2003 EST (# 17542 of 17547)
Can we do a better job of finding truth? YES. Click "rshow55" for some things Lchic and I have done and worked for on this thread.

Here are things that NYT people should know well - well enough to make good decisions about.

In http://www.mrshowalter.net/PutinBriefing.html there's the economic reason why people have to care what is said about them - in investment decision terms. There are vital social reasons, too, because so much human interaction involves status exchange. But here's the economic argument:

http://talk.guardian.co.uk/WebX?14@@.ee7b085/393

Perhaps this model is simple enough for you to use -and evaluate, punching numbers on a hand held calculator. Sometimes the biggest effects are easiest to see in a simple case, where relations stand out starkly.

Suppose you think of an investment,

where at time 0, you put in a cost, C

and after a time of t expressed in years (which could be a fraction)

you get a Payoff, P , if you win

and the PROBABILITY OF WINNING is a value a , between no chance ( a = 0 ) and certainty ( a = 1 ) so that 0<= a <= 1

It is worth noting,. . . . how the value of a matters.

Reliability is valuable (and unreliablility is very expensive ) from a gambler's (or investor's) point of view !

the expected rate of return, r , for this lump model is

r = [ln( aP/c)]/t

In words, the effective compounded rate of return (compound interest) is the natural logarithm of the risk discounted payoff-to-cost ratio divided by the time between putting out the expenditure C , and getting the payoff P .

Note:

it isn't the "best case" payoff to cost ratio, P/C , it is the risk discounted payoff to cost ratio (aP)/C that the investor, if he's a rational gambler, looks at.

So you want the probability of payoff, a , to be JUST AS CLOSE TO 1 AS YOU CAN GET IT.

In fact, most business people, when they see a values much less than 1, don't keep on calculating values of investments.

They turn away, and look for another game.

- - - -

That makes it necessary for people to care about (and know) what is being said about them - for straight economic reasons.

But it is also important to know - because so much social interaction is a matter of status exchange - of mutual accomodation. And because of the severe dangers to outsiders described in

http://www.mrshowalter.net/UrgeToPunishCheatsNotJustHumanButSelfless.htm

rshow55 - 01:49pm Nov 13, 2003 EST (# 17543 of 17547)
Can we do a better job of finding truth? YES. Click "rshow55" for some things Lchic and I have done and worked for on this thread.

To be an economic actor I have to care what people think about me. And of course I'm responsible for what I've said and done. If I'm criticised - I need to know it so I can deal with what's involved.

If people can talk about someone - and that person doesn't know it - on a routine basis - they can totally immobilize him - and destroy his ability to function. Casey was very clear about that.

When he had to kill the Oppenheimer offering for AEA, he knew just how to do it - and so did I.

If the Times doesn't know how these things matter - they aren't doing their job nearly as well as they could.

rshow55 - 01:51pm Nov 13, 2003 EST (# 17544 of 17547)
Can we do a better job of finding truth? YES. Click "rshow55" for some things Lchic and I have done and worked for on this thread.

They are doing unnecessary damage - being less influential than they could be - and missing chances to make money honorably - and to police dishonorable conduct from others.

rshow55 - 01:53pm Nov 13, 2003 EST (# 17545 of 17547)
Can we do a better job of finding truth? YES. Click "rshow55" for some things Lchic and I have done and worked for on this thread.

I have not asked for a whitewash. I've asked for a situation where the things that the NYT tells others about me - they also tell me.

For instance, if I'm trying to raise money for any deal I'm involved in - a private detective probably should run down leads on this Missile Defense board. He needs interfacing rules. And the rule I need - and he needs - is one that permits consistency. That means people know what people are saying - people are "reading off the same page."

(2 following messages)

New York Times on the Web Forums Science Missile Defense